The typical suspects have overcome group stage difficulties to rise to the top. However, no smoking gun has appeared to point out the single culprit most likely to win the tournament. Using a really big magnifying glass, a trench coat, a smart talking sidekick, and intuition, we embarked on an investigation of the remaining teams in this World Cup quarterfinals, searching for clues in a sea of uncertainty. Our conclusion as to who will win the World Cup?

All signs point to….

Let’s start with the obvious – you knew nothing about Paraguay except that their A closer inspection reveals a side more than capable of holding la furia roja without a goal for 90 minutes. Also, Argentine born – big in Germany -forward Lucas Barrios has proven potent up top, while Oscar Cardozo shined in Portugal this past year. Still, the albiroja would be a long shot for a finals appearance. Thus, they are among the list of secondary suspects – dangerous, but not requiring closer inspection at this time.

As for Uruguay, admit that you knew about Diego Forlan. He had a good season at Atletico de Madrid, scoring clutch goals in their successful Europa league campaign. However, aside from the game against South Africa, he has taken on an accomplice role. Diego is the distraction to the deadly, deceptive, and delightful enrachado Suarez, the Dutch young player of the year who has scored crucial goals this tournament for the charruas.

Despite the  world class striking tandem, depth at midfield poses a problem for Uruguay. Do they have the bodies to pull off a heist of global proportions? Probably not, as a nearly disastrous double yellow in the opening game against France revealed. Thus, the Uruguayans may pose a bigger menace than Ghana, they remain a secondary suspect.

Ghana is better than you thought. Despite the injury to Michael Essien, the seeds of the successful under20 side are blossoming nicely. Even Muntari, a strong role player in Inter’s successful treble winning season, struggles to get minutes. However, a glance at the magnifying glass reveals overly defensive tactics and a team too wet behind the ears. Could they upset Uruguay? It’s a remote possibility. But the semi-finals will probably be a bridge too far for Africa’s last remaining representative.

Now we move onto the primary suspects. The first is obviously Spain. The furia roja edged out a negative Portugal side which lacked any ounce of creativity in midfield. Still, David Villa aside, the Iberians have lacked a cutting edge in the 18 yard box. Despite Fernando Torres’ attempt to conceal his identity via hair color change, his lack of fitness has hindered his contributions. And his athletic and direct approach always stuck out like a sore thumb for Spain.

More troubling is Del Bosque’s overly negative tactics. The Spaniards two holding midfielders, Xabi & Busquets, means that Xavi has limited attacking targets. The lack of movement has been troubling. David Villa’s individual brilliance can probably lead them past Paraguay, but the semi-finals should see the limping Spaniards bounced in convincing fashion. The Spaniards are a primary suspect, but only just barely. Don’t count on finding their prints anywhere near the trophy.

Now, we turn out attentions to the disappearing Dutch. A glance at the roster gives us ample motive to assert Holland as favorites. However, going from paper to people, reasonable doubt creeps in. The Dutch locker room is always volatile, a tempestuous sea of swirling emotions where placid surfaces mask powerful undercurrents. Robin Van Persie’s recent outburst and lingering resentment from a basic free kick at Euro 2008 reveal a group of mean spirited, needy, and insecure professionals.

Up until this point, the Dutch coach has refrained from criticizing his own players, a rarity in the “everybody else is to blame” orange establishment. However, when the going gets tough, when the chips are down, the stylish Dutch 4-3-3 reveals a gaping hollow in the center as wingers complain about a “lack of service” rather than backtracking. Not to mention that this Dutch side has hardly played stylish attacking soccer so far. The orange’s suspect back line will haunt them against Brazil, in a closely contested affair more akin to involuntary manslaughter than premeditated murder.

Argentina has scored goals by the bucket, shielding an aging and lead footed back line. Javier Mascherano, aided by either Veron or Maxi, has worked tirelessly to feed the three striker attack while provided cover for Heinze and Demichelis. But will Di Maria provide enough width against a well organized German defense?

The bi-polar Diego gives both reasons to both suspect and discount the Argentinians. On the one hand, he has a happy locker room and confident group of attackers. On the other, he has failed to show the capacity to make an astute tactical substitution to turn a game in the albiceleste’s favor. The young Mueller and speedy Podolski may reveal the wear and tear on the defensive tires, but no team with Leo Messi and the in-form Tevez & Higuain can be dismissed out of hand. Expect a breathtaking quarterfinal, with the Argentines willing to attack, and the counterattacking Germans inviting them forward. Who will win? That would be more guesswork then detective work. A coin toss.

You can never underestimate the Germans. Never. Just when you figure the old guard has advanced into the sunset, a group of young and sprightly blonds, tall as an oak, sprint by your wingbacks and outjump your centerbacks. The biggest cause for concern, and suspicion, is the Turkish central playmaker.

Mesut Ozil’s ascent has been meteoric. June 29 of last year, he led the Under 20 side to a 4-0 thrashing of England. And this summer? Just a 4-1 drubbing in the World Cup. With the tireless Schweinsteiger in midfield, the ageless Klose occupying defenders, and the fearless Podolski out wide, Ozil offers a touch, vision, and reading of the game rarely seen in Deutschland. He is a primary suspect and must be watched closely, along with the rest of his German cohorts.

The primary suspect is the typical suspect is the usual suspect. Brazil. However, this Brazil wears gloves, a mask, dusts its own prints, and leaves no trace of impressive success in its wake. Not wanting to leave behind a shell, a bullet, or any other clue, the Brazilians prefer a much simpler, less noisy, and less messy manner of murder: asphyxiation.

Gilberto and Felipe Melo slowly wrap their paws around the game, patiently passing the ball with Lucio and waiting for a moment of weakness. All your intuition and instincts point to Brazil, yet no smoking guns appears. You blink your eye, and a first touch combination by Kaka, Elano, and Luis Fabiano leaves another talented side dead in the water. You blink a second time, and Robinho has just turned his defender and sidestepped a centerback, setting up Corrales for a tap-in.

And then they go back to pedestrian passing, a five foot pass backwards to a defender, a ten foot pass sideways to another, as if nothing had happened. You scratch your head in bewilderment, unsure of what you’ve just seen but uneasy all the less.

Uruguay vs. South Korea

I’ve underestimated Uruguay throughout this tournament, and I see no reason to stop now.  South Korea squeaks by in PKs.

USA vs. Ghana

Is it too early to call USA the Cinderella story of the tournament?  Two big crunch-time wins have given them at least even odds to make the Semifinals.  Jozy gets on the scoreboard today, and the USA sends the last African team packing.

Germany vs. England

It’s good for the US to be on the other side of this bracket.  Germany hasn’t been great at this World Cup, but England has been worse.  Germany in PKs.

Argentina vs. Mexico

El Tri will give the Argentinians a bit more than they expect–remember, Argentina hasn’t exactly had a top-flight opponent yet.  But the Argentinians have figured out how to score in a World Cup that has been lacking goals.  Argentina get a scare, but scrape this one out.

Netherlands vs. Slovakia

Yet another top flight team that hasn’t yet gotten a major challenge.  I’m pause to jump on the “Netherlands will finally win” bandwagon until I see them against a top 10 team.  Slovakia isn’t that team, but look at who’s up next after the Netherlands get through in a close match.

Brazil vs. Chile

It’s become pretty clear that Chile isn’t used to playing on a stage this big.  They controlled the game early vs. Spain but after conceding a goal deciding stabbing at the legs of opposing players would be enough victory for them.  Chile has racked up, by my rough count, 211 yellow cards and will be missing all 11 starters and 3 subs.  Brazil moves on, despite another threatening first 15 minutes by Chile.

Paraguay vs. Japan

Borrrring.  Paraguay tied an awful Italian team, beat Slovakia, and held onto a draw with the New Zealand All Blacks…or is it All Whites today?  I don’t know.  This somehow got them into the Round of 16.  Japan’s quickness eats them up.

Spain vs. Portugal

Spain get the matchup they want.  Right?  Maybe?  Aside from their 7 goal explosion against North Korea, Portugal have not looked exceptional this tournament.  Spain seem to have regained their footing, even if Torres is doing his best Emile Heskey impersonation.  But Spain have regained their footing against moderate opposition, and still only managed two goals against 10-man Chile last night.  This one goes to PKs.  Spain moves on.

We could resurrect the Mourinho as “dark lord,” a tactician who will win at all costs. But that leads to the next question – where will Mourinho be next summer?

If Perez signed Kaka & Ronaldo in part because their namesake sold jerseys, then what attire would Mourinho promote upon arrival? A dark and long coat? A Russian journalist offered Jose a crown, but the Portuguese astutely refused the obvious photo shoot setup. Still, how would the sly and sarcastic boy from Iberia fare in Madrid?

Well, the negative tactics…the negative tactics just do not fly in Spain. While the Italian media may dissect his every substitution and grant a standing ovation to a 1-0 victory, the cerebral fades into the aesthetic exterior in Spain. To win in Madrid is not enough – just ask Del Bosque and Fabio Capello.

Pellegrini led Madrid to a record breaking season in La Liga. Still, in a sense, his positive football undid the blanquillos in the Champions League. A compact and counterattacking Lyon took advantage of the galloping fullbacks, nicking a counter and then absorbing pressure. The Pellegrini approach can be described as Sven-lite: calm, composed, and always in control. At least of himself.

How would the Madrid press react to a 1-0 loss in the Camp Nou when Barcelona had over 70% of possession? Would Marca and AS take kindly to parking an airplane in front of Casillas? Mourinho’s defensiveness in press conferences belies his disdain for positive futbol purists. But can his ethos of “success at any cost” coexist on the same plan as Perez’s flashy “high costs equal success”?

And then there is the game, of course. Many Azulgrana faithful and PSV fans will recall Mark Van Bommel. The Dutchman is capable of a brilliant through ball spells of sharp possession, and totally disappearing for spells. Schweinsteger, to his credit, has adapted well to playing centrally. But can these two go toe-to-toe with Real rejects Cambiasso and Scheijder?

Robben, of course, has shown why he holds the label as World’s Best Player Made of Paper – when the injections reduce the swelling in his tendinitis ravaged knees, the Dutchman is unstoppable. But if Maicon diligently marked the elusive Messi, one has to wonder if Robben’s bags of tricks can fool the Brazilian.

So as you watch the game and count the players sold by Real Madrid at bargain prices, as you sweat alongside Pellegrini while Mourinho works his magic, just remember…the two teams playing one another are Bayern Munich and Inter. The merengues will have to wait another year.

Everybody, including me, wants to paint Mourinho as the Dark Lord, the scheming scientist locked in a dungeon in a castle atop a mountain. Due to his playful and sarcastic media mind games, his personality gets depicted in a negative light. Accordingly, we transpose this “abrasive” personality onto his team – if Mourinho is such a downer in press conferences, then surely his Inter play negative catenaccio. Right? Wrong.

Mourinho tried hard to instill a 4-3-3 counterattacking ethos at Inter. He purchased Ricardo Quaresma. He purchased Mancini of Roma fame. Both flopped miserably. So instead, Mourinho offloaded the Swedish and moody winger baggage in favor of Schneijder, Diego Milito, and Samuel E’too. The result? Mourinho, the scheming master of the negative, plays a conventional 4-4-2. Does his team hemorrhage early goals? Yes. Both Chelsea and Barcelona scored at the San Siro. But the spirited remontadas have been a feast of attacking menace.

Both Mourinho’s Chelsea and Inter feasted on the high Barcelona back line, springing the off-sides trap with devastating success. They also refused to get sucked into the Barcelona half, collapsing on the midfield maestros near the halfway line, but never a shade sooner. In summation, the game plan was France v. Spain at the the 2006 World Cup, NOT Italy v. Spain at the 2008 European championships.

I have already criticized the monopoly of the Cule, their stranglehold on the soccer media’s collective imagination. Since when did we place such weighty emphasis on total passes? On passes completed? Should the rules of the game be amended to a timed “monkey in the middle”, whereby goals are a secondary consideration to total passes completed times pass completion percentage? I vote an enthusiastic no, in part because I witnessed with horror the pre-shotclock era of basketball. Shudders.

A dictatorship starts with a shot to the adversary, but establishes power by monopolizing the imaginative realm. Journalists must disappear, editors must flee the country, a watchdog media must be converted into a lapdog. The Cule dynasty has fastened its grip on the press and this realm subtly, twisting the sporting values from goals & athleticism to ten foot passes. When the opposition raises its voice, they are painted as the enemy as the pueblo screams in terror. We must be protected from such infidels! Still, one fundamental doubt arises to the guidance of Barcelona’s Kantian moral compass…

While the success of last season in a sense justified the Cruyff-Dutch-Ideal, on the other hand, doesn’t commitment to an ideal entail sacrifice? Wouldn’t Barcelona’s dedication to the principles of Cruyff be more impressive if they continued to play this way with no success? Many a patriot has sacrificed his own life for the abstract concept of liberty – is patient passing more important than winning?

But why concern yourself with such thoughts? Keep things simple, Buy the Hype. Barcelona =’s pretty, Mourinho =’s negative mad scientist. Every time the Cules complete a pass, set your latte down for a brief round of applause. Every time an Inter defender sticks a tackle or lands a block, hiss in derision or nod in disapproval.

In a way, at the Nou Camp, Barcelona cannot lose. Granted, the result depends upon them and is entirely manageable – they have beat Inter 2-0 before. This time, there will be no travel nor dry pitch to subtly blame.

But win or lose, they will nobly carry the torch of the ten-foot-pass to either ecstasy or oblivion….

There once was one who desired “to make his throne higher than the clouds over the earth and resemble ‘My power’ on high.” This one, who called himself special, built a throne as high as the eye could see, yet his grasp never reached his vision. Frustrated. Troubled. His hubris weighed him down, tumbling to the Earth on broken wings. And landing in the Serie A.

Yet an ideal can also fall.

Ideals. Principles. Morals. Values. The desire to speak for an eternity of echelons, to convert the material into the ideal. Yet what happens when the carefully constructed mental image meets the harsh confines of reality? When happens when the painter’s loft is bombed by German warplanes? Guernica inspires introspection but wouldn’t stop a bullet. Ideals meet deaths. Often of their own making.

Temptation. Why be a stick in the mud? Why be so stubborn? Why try to fly a flag in a hurricane? The alternative is easier. Hoof the ball forty yards up field. Bypass the midfield with a switch to Messi. Ibrahimovic is so much taller than the central defenders. Alves whips in such dangerous crosses. Is it really that different? A slight tactical adjustment never hurt anybody. Just this once.

Adversary. Enemy. Accuser. Beelzebub. Belial. What Raphael will stand up to the Great Dragon? We’ve seen this battle enacted and re-enacted a thousand times before our very eyes. The lightbearer becomes archdeceiver. The risen falls.

Humming along on a cruise ship in the Caribbean, everybody is cordial and nobody doubts the abundances of life and goodness of man. But what happens on a lifeboat in open sea, when the sky blurs into the ocean, the sun beats down like a club, and you only feel the ripples of the waves and the pangs of hunger?

Now comes the true trials, temptations, and tribulations. The Cules will blink and swear they see twelve men huddled in the box. The lurking Swede’s head will appear tallest and easiest to hit. But for all the talk of rebellion, betrayal, and darkness, this time last year a flashing, blinding beam of hope shot through the Chelsea net like the first rays of dawn. Will we see another?

Oh, I’m sorry, I didn’t see you there. You just sneaked on us, Kaka and I, as we said our respective prayers. While I am Catholic and Kaka, as you may have guessed, is Evangelical, our Christianity unites us. Normally I prefer a papal-nonintervention policy when it comes to sports, but tomorrow, at the San Siro, I have asked for divine intervention.

I am not asking for a victory – do not call me greedy. No, I am merely asking for a respectable performance with a bit of grit. After the embarassment at the Bernabeu, I merely want the players to step off the pitch with their head held high and their jersey covered in sweat. My request is reasonable.

Kaka is delusional. After the love-hate-love affair with City, he jumped ship for Madrid. And he wants to be well received in Milan? Highly unlikely.

I must give respect where respect is due – Leonardo, after early struggles, has found his starting eleven. Pirlo drops back, Ambrosini wins the balls, Seedorf and Dinho spin some creative magic, and Borriello and Pato score goals. It sounds so simple, yet this formula evaded the Brazilian’s cognitive grasp early on. I wish Pellegrini would take a page from his book.

The backline has turned into an assembly line, Higuain cannot get an honest shake, and Mr. Kaka has looked impotent without Ronaldo to draw double teams. Lass and Xabi have things in control in the center, and Casillas is an institution, but the four crucial attacking slots have not solidified.

I pray for the best, expect the worst, and bet on the fence.