The 2010 World Cup is only 8 months away, yet the pessimistic build-up has begun. I have concerns about linking to this piece at the Times, but someone must defend the dark continent. And why not a person who has never visited there but once perused through a travel guide.

My flippant executive summary: tickets will be in short demand and crime exists in South Africa. Here´s the prob. The Times cites the statistic of 50 murders a day to scare you. But wait, let´s look at the population percentage. The country counts a total of 48 million populants. 50 times 365 equals 18,250 murders per year.

Now things get interesting. Let´s look at the murder rate for Chicago, a reasonably large city in the United States. Chicago had 450 murders in 2004 and is a population of 2.8 million. Chicago has 1/16th the population and 1/40th the murders. So South Africa has a little more than twice as many murders as Chicago, and Chicago pails in comparison to Detroit.

And let´s just mention that last year LA and NYC both reported more murders than Chicago´s mere 450.

I know that a distinction exists between urban and rural areas. But the intentional homicide rate in South America does not trail Southern Africa by much. Which continent has hosted more World Cups?

Only one statistic bothers me and I cannot deny it – as of now, US citizens have purchased the most tickets to South Africa for the World Cup. Does anybody else fear this toxic combination when murderous American arrive? My travel advisory – stay away from American populated hotels and bars! Boo!

But at least the Germans are prepared.

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